Reform, be bold and get your messages across
Policy group says early setbacks are no reason for Labour government to return to the austerity years
Just after the election, The QT published an article ‘Why the first 100 days will be critical for Starmer’. The author, Professor Matthew Johnson of Northumbria University, Chair of the Common Sense Policy Group, now gives his verdict on the Prime Minister’s first six months in Downing Street.
The 2024 General Election was a historic win for Labour - their third-best performance in terms of seats won. But it was not the commanding endorsement experienced by Tony Blair in 1997, or to a lesser extent in 2001, as we, the Common Sense Policy Group, warned at the time.
Yes, Labour played our electoral system very cleverly, but this was the result of deep dissatisfaction with the Conservatives after 14 years of decline as well as a split vote on the right between the Conservatives and Reform UK.
The result was the most disproportionate House of Commons in memory, with 58% of voters (and just 59.7% of registered voters even turned out) voting for a candidate who lost their constituency race. In all, Labour received just a third (33.7%) of the vote that turned out.
The Common Sense Policy Group warned that the risk for the new Government did not lie in being too bold or radical, but in being seen as ineffective and unable to effect change.
The one thing that Conservatives do, ironically, is make changes that people really feel, even if that's often for the worse.
Just as we have observed in the US with the arrival of Trump's second term, people just want to see change. They're sick of the status quo. Our research has shown consistently that people in the Red Wall constituencies who have shifted to the right over the last 10 years want policies that improve their material conditions.
But it is often the worst off, who would see their conditions improve most through policies that redistribute resources from the wealthiest to the rest of the population, don't believe that governments can or will make it happen.
Meanwhile, conservatives in power both make changes that have a tangible impact (usually against those who are worst off) and use effective communication strategies that make more people think they're better off.
The Government, on the other hand, has just announced another commission, this time on social care, that won't report for another three year. Their Autumn Budget made some positive changes toward being able to borrow for investment - just far enough to upset fiscal conservatives and not far enough to make meaningful inroads in improving public services and voters' day-to-day lives.
They don’t seem to realise that it's a lack of ambition based on fear of being labelled economically incompetent for making competent decisions that has resulted in this situation - and it appears we may instead be going straight back to austerity in the spring.
So, it's not been a strong start for the Government, and Reform UK are now just one point behind in the polls. We warned this would happen over time but the pace has been even faster than even we may have predicted. But the Government has another four years in power and can turn this around.
First, as we show in our report entitled Make Politics Work for Us, which we released last week, the Government needs to see reform of the political system both as a means of securing democracy and also as providing the necessary tools to deliver on the priorities of voters. These opportunities don't come along often.
Second, it needs to be bold in creating a new economy based on public infrastructure and current spending investment to deliver public services that work, that improve the productivity of the nation, and that create the growth, in partnership with the private sector, that we need for our national and economic wellbeing.
Third, it needs to recognise that effective communication of such policies, by appealing to people's day-to-day material conditions, is absolutely essential. Our research shows that even strong opponents of policy can be convinced by such an approach, and can help policymakers to shape such narratives. Conservatives already do this much more effectively.
The case for actually improving people's lives by direct investment is only stronger in our region. When we think about the reasons for decline and the basis of renewal, we must appreciate that no amount of incentives has encouraged private business to invest on a sufficient scale to make a difference.
We have to understand that only the state has the capacity and interest to invest directly in infrastructure, housing and industry to a sufficient level as to rebuild the North East. Doing so is the key means by which the Government can achieve re-election.
We titled our book, which was released just before the election, Act Now, because we knew that a slow and steady approach simply wouldn't cut it with the public anymore. Promises of a far-off gilded future didn’t cut it for the Conservatives at the last election.
We also call ourselves the Common Sense Policy Group because public investment to drive growth and reduce inequality as well as democratic reform to remove corruption and ensure that the vast majority of Britons' priorities are in the minds of parliamentarians, is just common sense.
So we argue that the Government should view these setbacks not as a reason to turn back the clock to 2010, but instead to make common sense, bold changes and to do so now, not in a few years.
The Labour government of 1945 lasted only six years due to a Liberal collapse in 1951 that gave the Conservatives many seats by default, but it made such fundamental changes to the system that benefited the public so much that its legacy lasted at least until the late 1970s.
If the Labour government of 2024 can do something on a similar scale, it can secure both national renewal that will last decades and ensure its re-election in four years time.
Matthew Johnson is Professor of Public Policy at Northumbrian University and Chair of the Common Sense Policy Group which comprises academics, policymakers, third sector leaders, community representatives, media figures and people with lived experience. Their work aims to address key issues in British life, such as poverty, inequality, and public investment, through evidence-based policies and innovative economic modelling.